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2021 NFL Draft Prospect QB - Trey Lance

Trey Lance 2021 Draft Profile:

Trey Lance, who stands at 6’4” and 225 lbs, played college at North Dakota State University in Fargo, ND. With 2019 being the only full season Lance played (only appeared in 1 game in 2018 and opted out of all but 1 game in the 2020-2021 COVID delayed season), Lance has a relatively small sample size. However, Lance absolutely balled out in the 1 full year of play. He threw for 2786 yards, 28 TD, and 0 INT while completing 66.9% of his passes. That’s right, zero interceptions in 287 pass attempts. His QB rating was a respectable 180.6. Oh, and he also added 1100 yards and 14 TDs on the ground. This was on 169 rushing attempts and averaged 6.5 yards per carry. For those of you who don’t know that NDSU runs the FCS, they also won the championship with Lance in 2019 (NDSU has won 8 of the last 9).

After spending some time watching Trey Lance on film, one of the first things that I think of is how electric of a player he is. He throws a great deep ball and usually hits the receiver in stride. His arm strength is very impressive on film. When the pressure gets to him, he is good enough to break a couple of tackles and scramble. And when he scrambles, watch out because he is quicker than most. He won’t be running the 40-yard dash, but he ran a mid-4.5 with performance manager, Anthony Hobgood over the winter. That’s some serious speed for a 6’4” QB, and he uses it well. He is very good at escaping the pressure and throwing on the run as well. He also doesn’t make many mistakes throwing the ball as he only had 1 INT in 19 games at NDSU. He did have 6 fumbles in those games, which could be cause for concern on his ball security.

All good things said, there is definitely a talent difference in favor of NDSU. If you watch a lot of Lance’s big plays, there is often a wide open WR or very poor tackling by the defenders. Most of his big scrambles or running plays would be not happen in the NFL due to the better tackling. Obviously, Lance is playing whoever is lined up across from him, but it is something to keep in mind when predicting his success in the NFL. Lance seems to go to his first read most of the time, and they are usually open or lightly covered. This simply will not work in the NFL. In the plays where the WR’s are covered, Lance does put the ball in great position for the WR to make a play.

At times, Trey Lance reminds me of Deshaun Watson. I believe Watson is the better thrower, but Lance is the better runner in my opinion. The biggest concerns for Lance are his small sample size, lack of competition, and some say he could work on his throwing mechanics. I see Lance having some success at the next level, both as a runner and a passer. I think his best landing spot would be behind a veteran QB to sit a year or two and develop more as a passer. Teams I could see selecting Lance include Atlanta, Carolina, Washington, and Denver.

Best case: Smaller, more athletic Josh Allen

Worst case: Terrelle Pryor


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