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Undervalued 2021 Rookies for Dynasty

Undervalued 2021 Rookies for Dynasty


RB Elijah Mitchell (SF)- Out of all of the players being drafted in the 4th-5th round in rookie drafts, Elijah Mitchell certainly has the highest ceiling. He’s 5’10”, 200 lbs and ran an impressive 4.38 at his pro day. During his 41 games at Louisiana, he averaged 6.2 YPC while totaling 3267 rushing yards and 41 TDs. He added another 49 receptions for 597 yards and 5 TDs in the receiving game. Let’s not forget he played alongside Trey Ragas for his whole career, who is no slouch either. Before the draft, many pointed out Mitchell as the best RB sleeper in the whole draft. What changed? His landing spot. He is now a member of the 49ers round-robin backfield that consists of Raheem Mostert, Wayne Gallman, Jeff Wilson and now Trey Sermon (3rd Round pick). However, none of the previous RB’s are under contract past 2021 (except obviously Sermon). Because of this, it’s possible we see a Sermon/Mitchell split in the 49ers backfield starting in 2022, and it is yet to be seen that Sermon would be the RB to own. Mitchell is the better pass catcher, which could be more beneficial for fantasy in an elite offense like Shanahan’s. Dynasty fantasy football is about seeing past just the upcoming season, so take the better value with Mitchell in the 4th or 5th round of your rookie drafts.


WR Nico Collins (HOU)- What if I told you there was a 6’4” WR, who weighs 215 pounds, runs a 4.43 40-yard dash, 22 years old, averaged 17.8 yards per reception in college and balled out during the 1-on-1’s at the senior bowl? You’d probably expect that WR to be one of the highly talked about names among the fantasy community. Wrong. His name is Nico Collins (obviously) and was just drafted in the 3rd round by the Houston Texans as the 14th WR off the board. In the FantasyHolics dynasty league rookie draft that we posted last week, I (Mr305) drafted Nico with the 15th overall pick (2.05). Not only did I love Nico Collins before the draft, I believe the landing spot only boosts his upside. The current Texans WR depth chart looks like the following: Brandin Cooks, Keke Coutee, Randall Cobb, Chris Conley, and Isaiah Coulter. I see Collins starting on the outside sooner rather than later. The biggest question is who will be the QB for the Texans in 2021? With the lawsuit allegations against Watson, many believe he may not play at all in 2021. Even if this is true, Nico has the potential to be a low end WR1 in fantasy with his size, speed and catching ability for years to come.


WR Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET)- The new-look Detroit Lions went out and drafted their lone WR in the 4th round. Many expected St. Brown to go in the 2nd or 3rd round of the NFL draft, but he unfortunately fell into the 4th. He is 5’11”, 200 lbs and ran a 4.51 at his pro day. He profiles to be a good possession receiver at the next level (love him for PPR leagues) and should contribute from day 1. He’s now going to a Lions team that has just lost Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones, and Danny Amendola. Who did they replace those guys with? Tyrell Williams, Breshad Perriman, and Quintez Cephus. Wow, talk about a downgrade. They also swapped Stafford in for Goff, which doesn’t help either. However, I believe St. Brown could have a similar role as another former USC WR, Robert Woods. They have similar size and speed, while they also both possess good route running and catching ability. St. Brown is currently going in the mid 2nd-3rd round range in rookie drafts, which is great value for a player who 1) has the talent to contribute starting week one and 2) has very little competition in front of him.


WR Josh Palmer (LAC)- Who? I’ll be honest, I only heard Josh Palmer’s name come up a couple of times before the draft took place. But with their 3rd round pick, the Chargers obviously saw something they liked in Josh Palmer. That draft capital should not be overlooked, as we know players that are drafted in the first 3 rounds of the NFL Draft have a much higher chance of becoming a top fantasy player at their position, especially at the WR position (there are many sources to support this, I will post link to articles in below). If we look at the Chargers depth chart, the players who are currently ahead of Palmer are Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Jalen Guyton. Allen is the definitive #1 WR, no questions. Guyton is a field stretching option whose contract is expiring this year. Williams is also not guaranteed to remain with the team after 2021 as he’ll be playing on his 5th year option and has not lived up to the hype. If the Chargers were to move on from Williams, that would certainly open the door for Palmer to get some targets. This may be slightly chasing situation over talent, but Palmer is an above average athlete who has great balls skills. He was also stuck in a subpar Tennessee offense as well, so don’t look too hard into his production there. I would be happy to get Palmer in the 3rd or 4th round of rookie drafts, who could end up being the WR2 in an offense with an electric QB in Hebert.


Draft capital vs fantasy success

https://www.dynastynerds.com/how-nfl-draft-selection-predicts-fantasy-rookie-success/


https://www.thefantasyfootballers.com/articles/draft-capital-its-correlation-to-early-career-fantasy-production/


https://www.pff.com/news/fantasy-football-what-draft-capital-tells-us-about-rookies-in-fantasy-football


#Mr305





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